Our model gives Portland Hearts of Pine a 38% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 37% for Fort Wayne.

Both teams are projected to score in 61% of simulations, against 39% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 57% likelihood against 43% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Portland Hearts of Pine have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Fort Wayne have done so in 2 of their last 3.