Our model gives Port Vale a 35% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 39% for Crewe Alexandra.

Both teams are projected to score in 51% of simulations, against 49% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 46% likelihood against 54% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Port Vale have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Crewe Alexandra have done so in 1 of their last 2.