Our model gives Ponte Preta a 28% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 46% for São Bernardo.

Both teams are projected to score in 51% of simulations, against 49% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 46% likelihood against 54% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Ponte Preta have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 3, and São Bernardo have done so in 2 of their last 3.