Our model gives Ponnistus a 50% chance to win this one, against 17% for a draw and 33% for Gnistan/Ogeli.

Both teams are projected to score in 76% of simulations, against 24% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 86% likelihood against 14% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Ponnistus have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Gnistan/Ogeli have done so in 1 of their last 2.