Our model gives Pogoń Siedlce a 30% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 44% for Stal Mielec.

Both teams are projected to score in 57% of simulations, against 43% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 57% likelihood against 43% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Pogoń Siedlce have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5, and Stal Mielec have done so in 2 of their last 3.