Our model gives Pittsburgh Riverhounds a 26% chance to win this one, against 30% for a draw and 45% for Tampa Bay Rowdies.

Both teams are projected to score in 45% of simulations, against 55% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 45% likelihood against 55% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Pittsburgh Riverhounds have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 4, and Tampa Bay Rowdies have done so in 3 of their last 3.