Our model gives Petone a 45% chance to win this one, against 19% for a draw and 36% for Island Bay United.

Both teams are projected to score in 71% of simulations, against 29% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 71% likelihood against 29% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Petone have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Island Bay United have done so in 1 of their last 2.