Our model gives Peñarol a 46% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Nacional.

Both teams are projected to score in 51% of simulations, against 49% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 51% likelihood against 49% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Peñarol have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Nacional have done so in 3 of their last 3.