Our model gives Peñarol a 52% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 20% for Cerro Largo.

Both teams are projected to score in 41% of simulations, against 59% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 41% likelihood against 59% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Peñarol have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Cerro Largo have done so in 1 of their last 3.