Our model gives Peñarol a 64% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 13% for Central Español.

Both teams are projected to score in 44% of simulations, against 56% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 44% likelihood against 56% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Peñarol have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Central Español have done so in 0 of their last 3.