Our model gives Parma a 40% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Catania.

Both teams are projected to score in 46% of simulations, against 54% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 41% likelihood against 59% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Parma have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Catania have done so in 0 of their last 2.