Our model gives Parceiro Nagano a 26% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 49% for Renofa Yamaguchi.

Both teams are projected to score in 52% of simulations, against 48% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 49% likelihood against 51% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Parceiro Nagano have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Renofa Yamaguchi have done so in 0 of their last 2.