Our model gives Palmeiras a 55% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Santos.

Both teams are projected to score in 54% of simulations, against 46% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 54% likelihood against 46% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Palmeiras have gone over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 6, and Santos have done so in 3 of their last 6.