Our model gives Pakhtakor II a 23% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 55% for Shurtan.

Both teams are projected to score in 59% of simulations, against 41% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 63% likelihood against 37% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Pakhtakor II have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Shurtan have done so in 2 of their last 4.