Our model gives Pakhtakor a 74% chance to win this one, against 17% for a draw and 10% for Buxoro.

Both teams are projected to score in 48% of simulations, against 52% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 58% likelihood against 42% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Pakhtakor have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Buxoro have done so in 2 of their last 4.