Our model gives Pakhtakor a 38% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 37% for Al Hussein.

Both teams are projected to score in 56% of simulations, against 44% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 54% likelihood against 46% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Pakhtakor have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Al Hussein have done so in 1 of their last 1.