Our model gives Paju Citizen a 29% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 42% for Seongnam.

Both teams are projected to score in 47% of simulations, against 53% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 47% likelihood against 53% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Paju Citizen have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Seongnam have done so in 1 of their last 3.