Our model gives Orsomarso a 55% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 17% for Tigres.

Both teams are projected to score in 41% of simulations, against 59% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 37% likelihood against 63% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Orsomarso have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Tigres have done so in 0 of their last 2.