Our model gives Oriente Petrolero a 39% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 37% for Always Ready.

Both teams are projected to score in 64% of simulations, against 36% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 62% likelihood against 38% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Oriente Petrolero have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Always Ready have done so in 2 of their last 4.