Our model gives Orenburg a 24% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 49% for Krasnodar.

Both teams are projected to score in 48% of simulations, against 52% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 44% likelihood against 56% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Orenburg have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5, and Krasnodar have done so in 3 of their last 4.