Our model gives Orange County a 20% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 53% for Sacramento Republic.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 45% likelihood against 55% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Orange County have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Sacramento Republic have done so in 2 of their last 4.