Our model gives Once Caldas a 49% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Alianza Petrolera.

Both teams are projected to score in 49% of simulations, against 51% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 50% likelihood against 50% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Once Caldas have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5, and Alianza Petrolera have done so in 2 of their last 3.