Our model gives Olympic Mobiuz a 87% chance to win this one, against 8% for a draw and 5% for Buxoro University.

Both teams are projected to score in 44% of simulations, against 56% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 77% likelihood against 23% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Olympic Mobiuz have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Buxoro University have done so in 3 of their last 4.