Our model gives Oldham Athletic a 46% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Swindon Town.

Both teams are projected to score in 48% of simulations, against 52% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 44% likelihood against 56% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Oldham Athletic have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Swindon Town have done so in 1 of their last 2.