Our model gives Okzhetpes a 48% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Zhenys.

Both teams are projected to score in 54% of simulations, against 46% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 52% likelihood against 48% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Okzhetpes have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Zhenys have done so in 3 of their last 4.