Our model gives NY Cosmos a 33% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 41% for Alta.

Both teams are projected to score in 54% of simulations, against 46% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 54% likelihood against 46% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, NY Cosmos have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Alta have done so in 3 of their last 4.