Our model gives Nueva Chicago a 36% chance to win this one, against 32% for a draw and 32% for Quilmes Atlético Club.

Both teams are projected to score in 37% of simulations, against 63% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 27% likelihood against 73% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Nueva Chicago have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Quilmes Atlético Club have done so in 1 of their last 4.