Our model gives Novorizontino a 47% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 25% for América Mineiro.

Both teams are projected to score in 45% of simulations, against 55% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 40% likelihood against 60% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Novorizontino have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and América Mineiro have done so in 1 of their last 2.