Our model gives Notts County a 39% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Burton Albion.

Both teams are projected to score in 55% of simulations, against 45% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 50% likelihood against 50% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Notts County have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Burton Albion have done so in 1 of their last 2.