Our model gives Norwich City a 41% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 35% for Southampton.

Both teams are projected to score in 63% of simulations, against 37% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 62% likelihood against 38% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Norwich City have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Southampton have done so in 0 of their last 1.