Our model gives Northern Tigers a 52% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 26% for Blacktown Spartans.

Both teams are projected to score in 60% of simulations, against 40% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 59% likelihood against 41% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Northern Tigers have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 1, and Blacktown Spartans have done so in 1 of their last 1.