Our model gives Northampton Town a 42% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 34% for Brighton U21.

Both teams are projected to score in 54% of simulations, against 46% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 57% likelihood against 43% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Northampton Town have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Brighton U21 have done so in 0 of their last 1.