Our model gives North Texas a 33% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 43% for Tacoma Defiance.

Both teams are projected to score in 67% of simulations, against 33% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 66% likelihood against 34% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, North Texas have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Tacoma Defiance have done so in 3 of their last 3.