Our model gives North Lakes United a 16% chance to win this one, against 13% for a draw and 72% for Moggill.

Both teams are projected to score in 76% of simulations, against 24% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 89% likelihood against 11% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, North Lakes United have gone over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 4, and Moggill have done so in 1 of their last 2.