Our model gives North Brisbane a 10% chance to win this one, against 10% for a draw and 80% for Moggill.

Both teams are projected to score in 68% of simulations, against 33% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 68% likelihood against 33% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, North Brisbane have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Moggill have done so in 0 of their last 1.