Our model gives Nordsjælland a 60% chance to win this one, against 20% for a draw and 21% for St. Gallen.

Both teams are projected to score in 55% of simulations, against 45% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 62% likelihood against 38% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Nordsjælland have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5, and St. Gallen have done so in 6 of their last 6.