Our model gives Norchi Dinamo a 67% chance to win this one, against 18% for a draw and 15% for Gardabani.

Both teams are projected to score in 55% of simulations, against 45% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 65% likelihood against 35% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Norchi Dinamo have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Gardabani have done so in 2 of their last 2.