Our model gives Nomads United a 30% chance to win this one, against 20% for a draw and 49% for Nelson Suburbs.

Both teams are projected to score in 66% of simulations, against 34% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 71% likelihood against 29% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Nomads United have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Nelson Suburbs have done so in 2 of their last 2.