Our model gives Noah a 72% chance to win this one, against 17% for a draw and 10% for Ararat.

Both teams are projected to score in 49% of simulations, against 51% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 65% likelihood against 35% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Noah have gone over 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 5, and Ararat have done so in 3 of their last 3.