Our model gives Noah a 61% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 17% for Alashkert.

Both teams are projected to score in 55% of simulations, against 45% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 57% likelihood against 43% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Noah have gone over 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 5, and Alashkert have done so in 3 of their last 3.