Our model gives Newmarket a 69% chance to win this one, against 15% for a draw and 16% for Yeronga Eagles.

Both teams are projected to score in 71% of simulations, against 29% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 83% likelihood against 17% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Newmarket have gone over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 4, and Yeronga Eagles have done so in 2 of their last 4.