Our model gives Nesebar a 45% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Rilski Sportist.

Both teams are projected to score in 54% of simulations, against 46% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 49% likelihood against 51% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Nesebar have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Rilski Sportist have done so in 1 of their last 4.