Our model gives Neftekhimik a 37% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Sochi.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 45% likelihood against 55% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Neftekhimik have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 4, and Sochi have done so in 3 of their last 3.