Our model gives Neftchi a 77% chance to win this one, against 15% for a draw and 8% for Qizilqum.

Both teams are projected to score in 41% of simulations, against 59% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 57% likelihood against 43% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Neftchi have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Qizilqum have done so in 2 of their last 4.