Our model gives Neftchi Kochkor-Ata a 39% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Abdish-Ata.

Both teams are projected to score in 55% of simulations, against 45% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 51% likelihood against 49% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Neftchi Kochkor-Ata have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Abdish-Ata have done so in 1 of their last 3.