Our model gives Neftçi a 55% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Araz.

Both teams are projected to score in 54% of simulations, against 46% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 53% likelihood against 47% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Neftçi have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Araz have done so in 0 of their last 1.