Our model gives Navbakhor a 61% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 16% for Dinamo Samarqand.

Both teams are projected to score in 53% of simulations, against 47% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 54% likelihood against 46% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Navbakhor have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Dinamo Samarqand have done so in 3 of their last 4.