Our model gives Navbakhor a 68% chance to win this one, against 20% for a draw and 12% for Bunyodkor.

Both teams are projected to score in 49% of simulations, against 51% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 49% likelihood against 51% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Navbakhor have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Bunyodkor have done so in 3 of their last 4.