Our model gives Nasaf a 36% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Pakhtakor.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 44% likelihood against 56% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Nasaf have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Pakhtakor have done so in 2 of their last 4.