Our model gives Naples a 36% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 37% for Athletic Club Boise.

Both teams are projected to score in 58% of simulations, against 42% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 55% likelihood against 45% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Naples have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Athletic Club Boise have done so in 3 of their last 4.